Global weather trauma

Although the BBC is a news outlet, not a peer-reviewed journal, and even though they are not particularly known for the quality of their scientific analysis, and even though I know that they label their articles to catch people's attention, I was still surprised by the adreneline-filled headline Climate Set for Sudden Shifts. The article goes on to mention that there are a number of changes that may occur on earth, some of which "could occur this century." Ok, so not exactly something to stay glued to your radio waiting for the announcement. I have no incentive for any sudden, unstudied solution. For instance, sudden loss of ice in Greenland and Antarctica aren't supposed to come up for another 300 years. Plenty of time to fill sandbags around New York City or come up with another idea.

The article claims to be summarizing the information in a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. One problem right off the bat for this article is that the solution recommended involves using computer models as an early warning system. Presumably, this also means that their results came from such a computer model. In other words, someone should take their ideas of how the data trends work together and create a system that shows these ideas. Which sounds an awful lot like a self-fulfilling prophesy. Models are inherently simplified. (See without further amplification Models Key to Climate Forecast, and ask yourself (1) if these are just the things they think they have to account for, how much are they missing? and (2) how do they select which approximations to allow?)

For instance, see Ocean Thermostat Can Save Coral. In this article, we are informed that the ocean regulates itself in such a way that surface temperature variations are absorbed and dissipated before long term damage can be done to tropical corals except in very localized situations, essentially meaning that coral bleaching is not a threat.

In closing and for further recommended reading, I finished recently Michael Crichton's State of Fear. While sometimes Crichton's works border on the silly, this book took a serious look at climate change. Stylistically, the book seemed more modeled on ancient Greek dialogs than the modern novel (although Crichton certainly did include enough plot to keep it moving). Through the course of the characters' interactions, he developed a decent skeptical argument regarding how little we know, how little we can prove, and how arrogant it is to assume that a few government regulations can fix things, and how that assumption is key to understanding why a political generation with no Soviet Union to fear need a new problem that only the government can solve.